The reckless regime of Trump is proposing to add an additional U.S. layer of blockade to the Strait of Hormuz, probably placing ships in the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea although these areas are in range of Iranian defences. This complicates shipping more drastically than the Iranian "toll booth."
But you need to look deeper than this, not at the ocean floor, something bigger. Part of this Iran play is to partially satisfy Netanyahu's kompromat on Trump, using his military to flatten Iran. The other part involves China - as with Venezuela, this is about strangling China's supply of heavy crude. Although China's oil and gas imports provide only 7% of their total energy consumption, supply is valuable to keep reserves topped up. Heavy crude is essential for making diesel and asphalt.
But herein lies an opportunity for China to take on the same role as The West in Ukraine, and use the Iran war as a proxy war against the U.S. just as the West is doing against Russia in Ukraine. Off-land battles do not necessarily set off nuclear exchanges. Chinese war ships could show up and escort tankers to China or other nations friendly to them. And the U.S. Navy would do what? But as of early April 14th, a Chinese tanker has passed through the strait.
How can the U.S. military keep dreaming about "weakening" China when they are obviously losing in yet another of their wars of aggression? But they are blocked from ending their hegemony by unipolar ideology, by outright militarism, by the economic needs of maintaining petrodollar hegemony to onshore the world's savings to pay for their extravagant consumption as well as by blatantly religious fanaticism.
But there's more to it. In CHINARB's post "Beijing Cares About Oil. Beijing Doesn't Care Whose Oil" their system of analysis very well describes "System A" (The West) and "System B" (China):
"System A's entire power mechanism is built on "using financial and military tools to regulate who can trade with whom."
System A's power does not come from what it produces. It comes from its ability to decide who can trade. SWIFT is this ability. Dollar settlement is this ability. Secondary sanctions are this ability. The Fifth Fleet guaranteeing freedom of navigation is this ability. The moment you accept "let me do business," System A's entire power mechanism is abolished."
Iran has promised drastic responses to further U.S. aggressive measures, and they have fulfilled every such promise. There could be further attacks on Gulf States energy infrastructure and possible closing of the Bab El-Mandeb, restricting traffic in the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
Regardless, there is no relief in supply chains unless the Trump regime actually backs down and goes home. Before February 28, was the Strait of Hormuz open? Why did it close? Perhaps Trump knows. So it's up to him to properly end this. That means abandoning isra3l.
The "ceasefire" talks in Pakistan failed due to U.S. intransigence - possibly to allow more time for the military ships coming over from LA to reach the area in advance of ground operations. They could not establish trust with the Iranian delegation. True diplomacy is based on a balance of trust and caution – for the U.S., they operate out of mistrust and fear, the continuous imagining of "threats," which leads to war, not peace.
The attacks of isra3l on Lebanon during the ceasefire talks were not an aberration, but to begin a split in the solidarity of the Axis of Resistance. Hezbollah (Hizbullah) was targeted while Iran was not responding as they should have according to their "Unity-of-the Front" alliance. Meanwhile, Lebanon's person opposing the ceasefire was at the negotiations in Islamabad! The israeli attacks on Beirut and southern Lebanon, 100 bombs in 10 minutes from 65 planes, were in part retribution for successful operations by Hezbollah, but also part of their regular "mowing the lawn," again bombing a mosque that had been rebuilt in 2011 following an isra3li bombing in 2006 and killing a beloved Imam. The downtown apartment buildings bombed may have once housed some Hezbollah figures.
As well, blocking transit of Hormuz blocks China's access to their over US$800B assets in Gulf nations.
Meanwhile, energy supply constraints will be increasing. In around 8-10 days the last tankers to have left the Gulf before this unnecessary war began will have reached their destination ports and then - nothing. Even if a tanker leaves tomorrow, it's 4-6 weeks to reach the intended refinery.
"The ultimate implication is unmistakable: in a world of recurrent basic-commodity stress, structural preparedness - measured by the flexibility of nested supply chains, the exergy efficiency of available techniques, and the alignment of exchange and use values *#8211; determines not only short-term resilience but long-term competitive position." – Prof. Warwick Powell, April 13.
The reality of these restrictions to energy supply have not been fully absorbed by affected parties. How is the EU going to refill their natural gas storage facilities before next winter? The Gulf States LNG production is not just shut in, several production trains have severe damage and may need total replacement. These are usually built in China and some of these little kingdoms may have to do some serious begging to get new equipment.
The utter foolishness of opposing Iran's control of the Strait is beyond reason. When you kick the hornet's nest, the hornets decide when they are done with you! Instead of this new activity by Starmer and Macron and 30 other foolish nations to find a way to "help open" the Strait, they could instead be reasonable like Spain and possibly next, Italy, and initiate diplomatic relations again with Iran, which is now a new, and normative power in the world. Or just keep on being stupid and get blocked from transit.
Pakistan's role as go-between in this war may come into question - yes, they want the war ended, but during the negotiations sent planes and personnel to Saudi Arabia to offer support in case of more Iranian attacks on Saudi territory. But again, this is Iran punishing neighbours for complicity on providing staging ground for U.S. attacks on Iran. Pakistan could be called into the war on the basis of their security agreement with the Saudis. Or, both could smarten up and condemn U.S. aggression, but perhaps that's too logical.
So what is this Kompromat that lets Netanyahu walk his dog (tRump)? The "Epstein files" are weapons of mass distraction to keep your eyes off the prize. Netanyahu and David Barnea, head of MOSSAD, work in tandem. At the March 11th meeting in D.C. where Bibi gave his pet tRump the war instructions, American President Netanyahu was sitting at the head of the table, tRump and his stooges along the sides including White House Chief of Staff Suzie Wiles, who worked on Netanyahu's 2020 election campaign. Is she a White House wire for MOSSAD? And behind Netanyahu by video link, overlooking all, was Head of MOSSAD. Netanyahu and Barnea hold the real Kompromat. This is my opinion only, not independently verified – they know the number of and names of the girls killed. Not just molested, murdered. This type of Kompromat must be managed carefully, since if it gets out with documentation, then the spell is broken, tRump is out of office, Natanyahu loses his "useful idiot" – the stupidest president in history in charge of the biggest military complex in history.
A while back I wrote that Netanyahu had been killed, but that appears to be more fake news from Times of India. But it is hard to be sure whether this Schrödinger's cat is alive or dead - why have there been several AI generated speeches? The only tell will be which of his avatars appears in D.C. to be applauded and/or give tRump more directions again.
References:
Beijing Cares About Oil. Beijing Doesn't Care Whose Oil | CHINARB | APR 14, 2026
Trump in FULL PANIC MODE in Islamabad, Iran BROKE U.S. Empire | Patrick Henningsen on Danny Haiphong program
Oil Shock Propagation in Nested Supply Chains - A Thermoeconomic Perspective on Demand Destruction and Structural Reconfiguration | DR WARWICK POWELL | APR 13, 2026
HANG ON: US Just Cut Off China's MidEast Oil Supply *#8211; This WILL Backfire Massively | Sean Foo | APR 13, 2026
IRAN THREATENS TO CLOSE BAB EL-MANDEB AS U.S. ATTEMPTS STRAIT OF HORMUZ BLOCKADE | Ehsan Safarnejad
Chinese Tanker Crosses Strait of Hormuz as U.S. Blockade Threats Fail | Prof. Mostafa Khoshcheshm | RACHEL BLEVINS | APR 14, 2026
Trump's Blockade Will Fail / Israel Destroys Lebanese Mosque Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris | APR 13, 2026
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